王石提醒同行:房价拐点就是秃子头上的虱子


 王石提醒同行:房价拐点就是秃子头上的虱子

一切皆因万科而起。这个在广州深圳掀起“杀价”风潮的中国领军房企,又开始在上海“洗盘”,与广州深圳“低于平均价开盘”的策略稍显不同,在上海,王石的万科祭出了在售楼盘直接优惠降价的策略,而这一时间结点,就在正月元宵节。
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>曾因“拐点论”而备受争议的王石,也在此时此刻找到“盟友”——上海绿地的老板张玉良,这家上海房企的领军者,似乎更能理解“拐点论”的真谛,于是,绿地旗下项目孝贤坊紧追万科,打折额度更是高达10%。
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>在广州与深圳首先挑战了“房价永远牛市”的论断之后,上海楼市未来几个月的命运,或将成为全国楼价未来的又一次预演。 
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>打折洗盘
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>鼠年春节前后,万科在上海一直在酝酿“大动作”,尽管在他们自己看来,一切或许可以冠以“销售策略”的名号,但他们的策略,足以让整个业界绷紧神经,因为他们选择的是营销策略最直接手段——打折销售。
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>中小房企正在盯紧万科的“元宵节”。因为按照万科前后思量之后做出的决策,这一天将成为“打折”的关键结点。而此时此刻,通常是房地产企业一年销售周期的起始,正有大量地产商的新楼盘等待推出销售。
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>记者了解到,万科此次“打折”牵涉的楼盘颇多,且基本为在售楼盘,白马花园、四季花城、假日风景都牵涉其中,优惠幅度为5%。这在一贯以上涨为主旋律的上海楼市,一家房企旗下的多家楼盘,统一打折,实属罕见。
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>然而就在大部分地产商正在揣测万科此举的心思之时,上海房企的又一巨头张玉良突然杀出,很多沪上地产商似乎已经察觉到了不妙的味道。
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>10%——张玉良的出手比王石更为阔绰。在绿地旗下的孝贤坊项目,这将是购房者可以享有的优惠。尽管和万科一样,婉拒了正面采访,但是,去年底,绿地集团董事长张玉良接受记者采访时,尽管否认了“拐点论”,但是他也说:“全国市场情况很难统一说,但是,上海市场可以肯定,不会再大涨了。”在判断市场不会大涨,而楼盘价格有了大幅上涨时,绿地也选择降价。
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘> onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘> 内外皆紧
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>全面的货币、信贷紧缩政策,似乎正在成为降价理论上的原因所在。
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>王石认为,这次的宏观调控不仅仅针对房地产,银根紧缩等货币政策是针对整个经济过热、通货膨胀的势头,是一次宏观战略的调整。
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>知情人士告诉记者,王石的这番言语是在中城联盟的一次闭门会议上说的,尽管对此前自己所抛出的“拐点论”,他在公众面前多番解释,但这一次,在非公众的场合,王石提醒当时在座的同行,“拐点就是秃子头上的虱子,明摆着”。 
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>王石的感觉确实不错。记者了解到,自春节之前开始的土地流拍,恰恰始自地产商资金链的绷紧。春节之前,一块被视作北京新生“地王”的15号地块最终流拍,表面原因是没能凑足三家投标者,但实际情况却是,最终有一家房企因难以筹备足购的现金,而不得不在投标前放弃,而春节之后,厦门又有六块土地最终流拍。
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>而在王石看来,资金链只是外部条件对地产商形成的压力,而同时,关键是需求一方的情势,也在发生改变。这也是房企祭出打折促销,以求资金回笼的原因所在。
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>王石说:“未来的福利保障系统要分两层,一类是低收入人群,另一类是为了吸引人才,增加城市竞争力,就是把高科技人才也纳入到城市福利保障系统中去。”显然,后者需求的分流一旦实现,对地产商的影响,显而易见。
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>降价之外
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>在中城联盟的闭门会议上,王石提醒他的同行们,调整战略的时候应该到了。
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>“所谓的拐点,典型来说就是冰火两重天。就像我刚才讲的,不是大起到大跌,不是上升曲线到下降曲线,而是需求发生了根本性转变。如果不调整资源,面对这个局面,我们会不适应这个形势。”王石的如此提醒,似乎是在为万科继广深之后再次在上海降价的绝佳注释。
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>值得注意的是,在万科固有的华南、华东以及环渤海三大区域市场中,前两者已经以不同形式降价,只剩环渤海地区依然固守。
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>显然,王石对于市场未来的悲观认识,正在左右着万科这批领头羊的企业战略,追求规模而不是涨价,似乎正成为万科盈利的新逻辑,尽管在一年前,这家企业尚且以很快的价格涨幅,在业界受到“心口不一”的诟病。 
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>显然,鼠年的王石,已经不再奢求像2007年那样依靠快速调价而获得高额利润的盈利模式,因此,降价正是在此背景下出台。
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>
onclick)arg1.onclick=null;if(arg1.onmousemove)arg1.onmousemove=null;if(arg1.onmouseover)arg1.onmouseover=null;if(arg1.ondblclick)arg1.ondblclick=null;if(arg1.onmouseenter)arg1.onmouseenter=null;if(arg1.onmouseleave)arg1.onmouseleave=null;return result;}‘>中原地产相关分析人士表示,目前上海楼市处于比较敏感的时期,如果有大型开发商推出一定幅度的降价举措,那么一些区域很可能出现较大规模的降价潮。一些开发商已放慢了开盘的节奏,希望看清市场走势后确定开盘策略。而这正是万科、绿地打折促销之外的长远效用所在。  

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