200亿张纸币作废 如何理解印度政府于 2016 年 11 月 8 号突发声明作废 500 和 1000 面值的纸币?

居然过了100赞了~~那我再更新一下这位23W关注度的印度洗地王的关于此次废钞活动的新文章


刚看了下QUORA印度洗地神balaji viswanathan的答案,22000个赞。给搬运过来吧。Withdrawing high denomination currency notes [demonetization] has been done before [1946, 1978]. However, I believe the present move [2016] might have a bigger impact than the one done by British India and Morarji Desai. This is a move I have been dreaming for years and glad that it was done.取消大面额票子的这种措施,早在1946年和1978年就实施过了,今年的措施带来的冲击明显会比过去两次的大很多。但是这项举措,我特么做梦都希望它发生,没想到居然还真的实现了笑傻我了!The fact that the government was able to do this so secretly in such a connected manner speaks volumes. Indira Gandhi tried this in early 1970s, but could not as the move leaked out and the bad guys quickly changed over the notes. The government had to back out of the move then. I’m even thinking if the move to ban NDTV was just a ploy to distract the whole media, to pull this off. And it was possiblyed on US election day likely to get the global media off the heat and attention, as foreign media has been ultracritical & condescending of any major move in India.事实上印度政府这么悄悄的实施有很深的含义。英迪拉·甘地(印度铁娘子)早在1970年就尝试这么干,但是在措施发布前消息泄密了,财主们都提前把钱换好了,行动失败。我甚至认为先前抵制新德里电视台的运动是个阴谋,为的是转移大家注意力。然后选在美国大选日发布,也是乘西方媒体注意力转移时,防止他们对咱们的措施说三道四。

There are 5 key incentives for this:
1.Bringing out illicit money sloshed stashed in the parallel economy
2.Having a lid on the fake money racket supported by our western neighborIncentivizing
3. India to go cashless. The banks would not hand you wads of the new cash, but will just credit the money to your bank account in place of your old currency.
4Moving the notes to a more secure standard - with better protection against counterfeiting.
5.Curbing inflation in real estate and reducing gold imports.
As the 6th incentive, it would impact coalitions ahead of the major elections in UP and Punjab. It is not shocking that elections, especially in these states with multidimensional politics [a lot of parties fighting] involve a lot of illicit money. MLAs get traded like horses - with suitcases of cash. Some of that trading will get impacted.
第一大动因主要是打击那些藏匿的黑钱。
第二是防止巴基斯坦利用假钱。
第三是推进印度的无钞票化,银行不用再发大把票子了。大家都用信用卡和支付宝吧。
第四,加大钞票的伪造难度。
第五是减少地产通胀和削减黄金进口。
第六个动因,为对UP和Punjab两个地区大选的贿赂问题产生影响,因为那里政党多,为多头政治,选举用黑钱行贿很厉害,选票就像买卖马一样,拿蛇皮袋子装钱送,这样对贿选的影响很大。

Unlike in the past, I don’t see much impact on normal users of currency. The transactions that happen on Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 should be moving to netbanking/cheque/cards anyway. If someone is still holding out against modern transaction methods, this is the opportunity to come out from under the rock.

For the poor who don’t have debit/credit cards, there might not be much impact either - as most of their transaction happen under Rs. 500.

不像以前,我并不觉得这会对一般的民众产生很大的影响,对于需要使用的500和1000的卢比交易的时候,完全可以使用网银,支票和信用卡还有其他支付方式,如果有人反对这些现代化的交易方式的话,那是时机来推广了~

另外没有信用卡的穷屌丝也不会有太大影响,因为买东西时,他们是花不到500卢比的。。

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印度如何解决由于废钞引起的通货紧缩?????????

A good question. There will be a GDP hit from the reduced spending along with lower economic activity in general. This is the time for the government to step up the spending and provide a stimulus package. I’m hoping that the government brings a 3–4 lakh crore rupee extra package gained from this exercise in the next budget. That can both compensate for the reduced private consumption and take India to the next stage of development.

这个问题问的好!较低的经济活跃度和支出削减将打击GDP增长。这时政府应该大把撒钱和提供一揽子经济刺激政策。我希望政府可以从这次活动中为来年的财政预算提供相当于3-4万亿人民币的额外计划,这样可以弥补个人消费的减少,还能将印度推向另一个发展阶段。

200亿张纸币作废 如何理解印度政府于 2016 年 11 月 8 号突发声明作废 500 和 1000 面值的纸币?

It is an amazing opportunity for Modi that most other leaders didn’t get. A deflation and a potential revenue windfall. Now that the bank queues are getting to normal and public anger diminishing, it is time to think big. The 2016 budget proved to be among the best and time to step up the accelerator in 2017.

摆在莫迪面前的是前领导人们都没遇到过的一个重大机遇!一次通货紧缩和潜在的意外财政收入。

现在银行门口排队的人也差不多麻木了,公众的愤怒也逐渐消减,是时候开大脑洞,等2017年步入飞速发展阶段时将会证明2016年的预算是最棒的~~~~


My wishlist:

我希望~

Healthcare revamp. This is one area that the government has not invested as much as it should have. Time to fix this big hole. Let 2017 budget be the healthcare budget with an attempt to double the government’s current investments - with more preventive care, prenatal care and pediatric care.

首先医改!~这个是政府最该投资却没有投资的领域,时间会弥补这个漏洞,政府在2017年的医疗领域的预算投资,应该增加一倍!增加更多的预防保健,产前护理,儿科医学。


Major incentives for organic farming of vegetables and fruits. Continue from where it was left in 2016 budget and multiply the incentives 10x. From greenhouses to better data and efficient irrigation, government can create healthy food clusters across the country. Fill the nation’s belly with healthy diet and you can comply both with Paris accord, improve earnings of farmers, modernize agriculture as well as placate the votebase that wants reduced beef consumption.

对水果蔬菜等有机农业的主要激励措施,应该比2016年的预算提高10倍,从大棚种植到数据化还有有效率的灌溉,政府可以在全国范围创建绿色食品生产基地~~即可以用绿色食品填饱全国人的肚子~又能遵守巴黎协定(提高农民的收入并使农业现代化)~同样还能安抚那些希望减少牛肉消费的人的情绪。



Safer tracks and better inter-city connectivity. Rather than more roads, government should pump up its railways and build clusters of new development around its stations.

建更好更安全的城际连接,而不是更多的公路,投资铁路和在火车站周边建立新的发展集群。


Pump up tourism spending with a intensive Swachh Bharat campaign around major national monuments and ecosensitive regions. If domestic rich mean cannot spend, let us get more foreigners do that.

加速旅游业的建设!在主要的国家物质文化遗产和生态公园贯彻实施Swachh Bharat行动(该行动主要内容是大建厕所),如果国内的人不想掏钱进去方便,旅游的老外总还是要进的吧。


Goad Urjit for a steep interest rate cut as there is no fear of inflation. That will spur up new borrowings and investments. To reduce the impact on senior citizens, bring more teeth to the pension plan. In parallel, tighten up the loan requirements so that new NPAs are avoided.


Goad Urjit 可以将高不可攀的利率削减,而不用担心通货膨胀。这将刺激新的借贷和投资!减少老年人的负担,为社保基金注入更多的弹药。同时要严审贷款的要求!避免形成新的不良资产。~


We are getting the systems healthier with less illicit money and time to get the people healthier. The increased spending on this will have a chain effect that could lead to more economic activity and neutralize the deflation. Time for a New Deal.


我们可以减少黑钱来使系统运转更良好,人民更健康!这些增加的政府支出!将会产生连锁效应导致经济更有活力!还能中和通货紧缩~!

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