爱华网概念
黄金白银下跌 美元低位求新生鲍莫尔病(Baumol'sdisease)是美国经济学家威廉・鲍莫尔在1967年一篇研究经济增长的论文中提出来的。他建立了一个两部门宏观经济增长模型，其中一个部门是“进步部门”(progressivesector)，另外一个部门是“停滞部门”(nonprogressivesector，后来鲍莫尔常用stagnantsector)，进步部门的生产率相对快速增长将导致停滞部门出现相对成本的不断上升。他认为，如市政府服务、教育、表演艺术、饭店和休闲等很多服务部门都具有这一特征，整体上看，相对于制造业，服务业劳动生产率更难以提高，正如在表演艺术市场上，三百年前的莫扎特四重奏要四个人演，三百年后依然要四个人!因而，随着制造业的生产率改进，服务业在整个经济中的比重反而上升了。
Baumol'scostdisease
Baumol'scostdisease(alsoknownastheBaumolEffect)isaphenomenondescribedbyWilliamJ.BaumolandWilliamG.Boweninthe1960s.Itinvolvesariseofsalariesinjobsthathaveexperiencednoincreaseoflaborproductivityinresponsetorisingsalariesinotherjobswhichdidexperiencesuchlaborproductivitygrowth.Thisgoesagainstthetheoryinclassicaleconomicsthatwagesarealwayscloselytiedtolaborproductivitychanges.
Theriseofwagesinjobswithoutproductivitygainsiscausedbythenecessitytocompeteforemployeeswithjobsthatdidexperiencegainsandhencecannaturallypayhighersalaries,justasclassicaleconomicspredicts.Forinstance,ifthemusicindustrypaysitsmusicians19thcenturystylesalaries,themusiciansmaydecidetoquitandgetajobatanautomobilefactorywheresalariesarecommensuratetohighlaborproductivity.Hence,musicians'salariesareincreasednotduetolaborproductivityincreasesinthemusicindustry,butratherduetoproductivityandwageincreasesinotherindustries.
Theoriginalstudywasconductedfortheperformingartssector.BaumolandBowenpointedoutthatthesamenumberofmusiciansareneededtoplayaBeethovenstringquartettodayaswereneededinthe1800s;thatis,theproductivityofClassicalmusicperformancehasnotincreased.Ontheotherhand,wagesofmusicians(aswellasinallotherprofessions)haveincreasedgreatlysincethe19thcentury.
Inarangeofbusinesses,suchasthecarmanufacturingsectorandtheretailsector,workersarecontinuallygettingmoreproductiveduetotechnologicalinnovationstotheirtoolsandequipment.Incontrast,insomelabor-intensivesectorsthatrelyheavilyonhumaninteractionoractivities,suchasnursing,education,ortheperformingartsthereislittleornogrowthinproductivityovertime.Aswiththestringquartetexample,ittakesnursesthesameamountoftimetochangeabandage,orcollegeprofessorsthesameamountoftimetomarkanessay,in2006asitdidin1966.
Baumol'scostdiseaseisoftenusedtodescribethelackofgrowthinproductivityinpublicservicessuchaspublichospitalsandstatecolleges.Sincemanypublicadministrationactivitiesareheavilylabor-intensivethereislittlegrowthinproductivityovertime.AsaresultgrowthintheGDPwillgeneratelittlemoreresourcestobespentinpublicsector.ThuspublicsectorproductionismoredependentontaxationlevelthangrowthintheGDP.
Effects,symptoms,andtherapy
Producerscanreacttowageinflationinanumberofways:
Decreasequantity/supply
Decreasequality
Increaseprice
Increasenon-monetarycompensationoremployvolunteers
Increasetotalfactorproductivity
Inthecaseofeducation,theBaumolEffecthasbeenusedasatleastpartialjustificationforthefactthat,inrecentdecades,collegetuitionhasrisenfasterthanthegeneralrateofinflation.
Thereportedproductivitygainsoftheserviceindustryinthelate1990scanbemostlyattributedtototalfactorproductivity.Providersdecreasedthecostofancillarylaborthroughoutsourcingortechnology.Examplesincludeoffshoringdataentryandbookkeepingforhealthcareproviders,andreplacingmanually-markedessaysineducationalassessmentwithmultiplechoiceteststhatcanbeautomaticallymarked(seeScantron).
Thetotalfactorproductivitytreatmentisnotavailabletotheperformingartssector,becausetheconsumablegoodisthelaboritself.Instead,ithasbeenobservedthatincreasesinpriceoftheperformingartshasbeenoffsetbyincreasesinstandardoflivingandentertainmentspendingbyconsumers.Theextenttowhichtheothertreatmentshavebeenemployedissubjective.
