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发布时间：2022年04月15日 05:59:16分享人:偷得浮生半日闲来源:互联网23
8月22日：秋高气爽的好天气。看看自己翻过的文章，好像经济类和science之类的为主，经济类的是拜我们经济之扶不上墙长达6年所赐，想看看问题在哪里？当然也没整明白。中国经济一衰再衰。sciense呢，是因为自己理科生的原因，总想刨根问底弄明白些东西吧。
Economicturmoil
经济动荡

Over to you,George
乔治，全靠你了

The central-bank governor sends a message to thechancellor
这是央行行长要对英国财政大臣说的话
Feb 18th 2012 | from theprint edition



IT HAS been a turbulent week for Britain’s economy. On Monday, abad start: Moody’s, a credit-
rating agency, threatened to strip the government of its cherishedAAA status. New data on
Tuesday repaired some of the damage, showing that consumer-priceinflation was finally falling, to
3.6% in January from 4.2% in December, and over 5% before that.Then Wednesday’s news was
glum again: unemployment rose to 8.4% in the three months toDecember, the highest rate for
over 15 years. To cap it all, the Bank of England published itsquarterly Inflation Report, setting
经济类的文章 有关经济类的文章
out where it thinks the economy is heading, whatthe bank will do about it and what it won’t.
对英国经济来说，这是不平静的一周。坏的消息从周一开始：评级机构穆迪威胁说要下调英国政府信用的3A评级。
周二发布的新数据就感觉好多了：一月份的消费品价格增长从去年12月份的4.2%下降至3.6%，这一数据曾经高
达5%。周三的消息又让大家多云转阴：失业率到去年12月份底连续上升，升至了15年来最高的8.4%。从英格兰
银行新公布的季度通涨报告就能看出：英国经济将何去何从，还有什么招数、亦或根本无计可施。

Of the barrage of numbers released this week, unemployment will bethe one that concerns most
people. It will worry the chancellor of theexchequer, George Osborne, especially, as joblessness
wrecks both household and government finances. The best antidote isgrowth, but prospects are
poor. Sir Mervyn King (pictured above), governor of the centralbank, says the economy is likely to
zigzag in and out of positive territory until the end of theyear.
本周公布的这一系列数字中，失业率是人们最关注的数字。这也是财政大臣乔治.奥斯本担心的数字，高居不下的失
业率不仅使家庭蒙受损失还让政府经济遭受打击。最好的解药就是经济能恢复增长，但前景并不乐观。英国央行行
长默文.金爵士（上方照片）说，经济在年底出现转机前还会不停波动。

Threats to future growth include some things the bank cannot orwill not help with. Extreme euro-
area distress would be the most damaging, but it is outside thebank’s ability to quantify, let alone
control. Nor does the threatened rating downgrade require anyresponse from the bank, though it is
a reminder, on Sir Mervyn’s reading, that MrOsborne has no choice but to stick to his deficit-
reduction plan.
未来经济增长的阻碍还包括一些银行业无能为力的因素，或帮不上忙的因素。深陷困境的欧元区是最大的阻碍,
但这已超过了英国央行的能力范围，让他们自行解决吧。 连对下调政府信用评级这样地威胁英国央行也只是置若罔
闻，默文.金爵士对此的解读是，现在奥斯本财长的重心都放在减少财政赤字上了。

Some threats do demand action, however. Small businesses, whichusually create lots of jobs, are
being starved of loans. And productivity growth has been poor,particularly in the services sector,
which accounts for three-quarters of economic output. Galvanisinglending will require targeted bank
-funding guarantees. Enhancing productivity will involve structuralreform. Both are jobs for electedofficials ratherthan the central bank, says Sir Mervyn. For him, monetary policyhas its
limits and has played its part. The bank’s taskis stabilising prices; if Mr Osborne wants growth,
it is his turn to move.
但是，对另一些威胁还是要着手处理的，如，能创造大量就业机会的小微企业正面临着贷款难的问题；生产量增长
乏力的问题，特别是占到经济产出总量四分之三的服务行业。要鼓励借贷就需要为目标融资银行提供担保；而要提
高生产力就需要产业结构改革。 默文.金爵士说，这两项工作都该归现任政府而非英国央行负责。对他而言，目前
的货币政策有它的局限性和它自身应扮演的角色。央行的职责就是稳定物价；提高生产力是奥斯本先生的职责。

In some ways the Bank of England would like to get back to theearly days of its independence,
granted in 1997. For nearly ten years inflation was at or close toits 2% target. But since March
2007 prices have been much more unruly, forcing the governor toapologise publicly time after time
for letting the consumer-price index overshootthe mark. Now, at last, things are looking better:
inflation should continue to drop as falls in wholesale energyprices flow through to lowerutilitybills.
The bank expects inflation to be back on targetwithin three years, perhaps dipping below it before
then (see chart).
在某些方面，英格兰银行真希望能回到1997年刚独立门户时的早期岁月，从那时起的十年时间，通货膨涨都维持在
2％的目标范围内。但自从2007年3月以来，物价开始飞涨，迫于压力，政府不得不因为高的离谱的消费价格指数不
断的向公众致歉。现在，事情在向好的方向发展：随着能源价格的回落，家庭水、电账单也会持续下降。央行期望
通涨能在3年内恢复到目标范围，甚至比以往更低。
http://media.economist.com/sites ...20120218_BRC594.gif
These forecasts are important for investors. Since March 2009 thebank has used asset purchases (quantitative easing, or QE) tofine-tune the amount of money in the economy, which can pumpup
bond and equity prices. Now, with inflation expected to be broadlyon target before long, it is
unlikely to announce a further round of QE sales or purchases inthe near future.
这些预期对投资者来说相当重要。从2009年3月以来银行通过资产运作来微调投放市场的货币量，从而抬高了债券
和股票的价格（即量化宽松政策）。现在，距离预期的目标低通涨率还很远，未来不会有新一轮的量化宽松政策出
台。

The message for households is clear too. Lower inflation means thatinterest rates are unlikely to
rise any time soon, keeping mortgage costs down. And real householdincome should improve. Tax
changes will also help, with an increaseinpersonalallowancesin the March budget worthabout
£1.1 billion ($1.7 billion). All this will be welcome relieffor people hit in 2011 by what Kevin Daly of Goldman Sachs calls a“perfect storm” of low wage growth, high inflation and taxincreases. If, that
is, they still have jobs.
这些信息对每个家庭就很明确了：低通涨意味着银行利率在短期内不会再上涨，按揭贷款随之降低，家庭的实际收
入就增加了。税制改革也助了一臂之力：提高的个人所得税免税额，就占到了3月份的财政预算的11亿英镑（17亿美金）。所有这些举措，对那些经历了2011的低工资增长、高通涨、高税收的被高盛公司的凯文.达利称为“完美风
暴”的人们，终于可以松口气了 。

from the print edition | Britain
译者注：
Personalallowances:计算所得税时的个人免税额
utility bill:物业帐单, 这里面包括水、电、煤气等公共设施的使用费

  
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