爱华网亚洲时报在线：佤山战鼓
Wardrums in Myanmar's Wa hills
By Anthony Davis
亚洲时报在线：佤山战鼓
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可供研究缅北问题思考
(2014-04-2607:08:56) 繁霜尽是心头血
WardrumsinMyanmar'sWahills
ByAnthonyDavisApr23,'14AsiaTimesOnline
YANGON-SeniorGeneralMinAungHlaing,commander-in-chiefofMyanmar'sarmedforces,orTatmadaw,isamanonthemove.SincethebeginningoftheyearhehastraveledtoLaosandIndonesia,attendedlarge-scalewargamesincentralMyanmar,reviewedthecountry'slargestevernavalexercisesintheBayofBengal,presidedovertheannualArmyDayparadeinthecapitalNaypyidawandmetwithastringofforeigndignitaries.
缅军总司令敏昂来大将活动频繁。自年初开始，他出访了老挝和印尼，在缅甸中部参加大规模战争演习，在孟加拉湾视察缅甸最大规模海军演习，在内比都主持建军节阅兵及接连会见外国显要。
ArecentlesspublicizedengagementwasarguablymoresignificantforMyanmar'swarandpeaceprospects.OnApril6,MinAungHlaingflewnorthfromNaypyidawtothegarrisontownofLashioinnortheasternShanStatetoholdtalkswithBaoYou-ri,theyoungerbrotherofBaoYou-xiang,theailingleaderoftheUnitedWaStateArmy(UWSA).BasedeastoftheSalweenRiverinaself-governing"specialregion",theUWSAisMyanmar'slargestinsurgentgroupandisatpresentinanuneasyceasefirewiththegovernment.
他最近一次曝光较少的交往对于缅甸的战争与和平前景更具意义。4月6日，敏昂来从内比都飞赴掸邦北部的驻军城市腊戍，与佤联军（UWSA）领袖鲍有祥之弟BaoYou-ri,会谈。
ThatMyanmar'smostpowerfulmilitaryandpoliticalfigureshouldhimselftravelfromhisheadquartersforameetingwithaproxyoftheleaderofanarmedethnicgroupratherthandelegatingthetasktotherelevantregionalcommanderwasintriguing.EvenmoreremarkablewasthatMinAungHlaingwasflankedbyArmedForceschiefofgeneralstaffGenHlaHtayWin,AirForcecommanderGenKhinAungMyint,andNavycommanderAdmiralThuraThetSwe.Suchaline-upoftheTatmadaw'ssenior-mostleadershipisunprecedentedinanygovernmenttalkstodatewithethnicgroups.
缅甸最有权力的军事和政治人物竟然为了会见一个民族武装组织领袖的代表而亲自从首都去往外地，却不是让相关军区司令去办，必有图谋。更有甚者，缅军陆、海、空军总参谋长居然也都陪同前往。这样一群缅军最高领导人同民族组织会谈史无前例。
ThemeetingcameatthesametimeastalksinYangonbetweenagovernmentpanel-includingmilitaryofficers-andateamofleadersfrom16otherethnicfactionsaimedatdraftinga"nationwideceasefireagreement",orNCA.Intendedtomarktheendof66yearsofethnicandpoliticalarmedstrifeandserveasafoundationforfurtherprogressonthemilitaryroadmaptowards"disciplineddemocracy",thesigningoftheNCAhasbeenpostponedseveraltimessinceJulylastyear.TheTatmadawhasnowsetadeadlineofAugust1fortheplannedgrandceremony.
这次会谈与仰光和谈同期。
TheUWSA,however,hasremainedpointedlyalooffromPresidentTheinSein'sself-toutedpeaceprocess.FormerlyamajorsegmentoftheChina-backedCommunistPartyofBurma(CPB),theWahavehadtheirownceasefirewiththeTatmadawsincetheCPBcollapsedin1989.AfteraspikeintensionscausedbytheWa'srejectionofdemandsthattheUWSAsubordinateitselftoTatmadawcommandaspartofaso-called"borderguardforce"(BGF),thetwosides'ceasefireagreementwasrenewedinSeptember2011.
WhilemonitoringthenegotiationssurroundingtheNCA,theWalastyearputforwardademandfortheirownstatewithinMyanmarwhichwouldeffectivelylegitimizethecompleteautonomytheycurrentlyenjoyintheir"SpecialRegionNo2"-and,presumably,thecontinuedexistenceoftheirownarmedforcestosafeguardthatautonomy.
TheWahavethefirepowertobacksuchdemands.TheUWSAislooselyestimatedtofieldcloseto25,000regularsbackedbyalargemilitiareserve.ThegrouphasbeenmakingconsistenteffortstoexpanditscapabilitieswithaviewtodeterringanypossibleTatmadawmovesagainstit.FollowingTatmadawpressureovertheBGFscheme,fearsofsuchanattackweregalvanizedfirstbyTatmadawincursionsin2009againsttheautonomousSpecialRegionNo1inKokang,tothenorthoftheWaarea,andthenbyamajorgovernmentoffensiveagainsttheinsurgentKachinIndependenceArmy(KIA)inlate2012andearly2013.
WhethertheyoungerBaowasflatteredorintimidatedtofindhimselffacingMyanmar'smostpowerfulmilitarychiefsremainsunclear:thedetailsoftheirApril6exchangehavenotbeendisclosed.However,itseemslikelythemessagefromthemilitary'ssidewasthesameasthatwhichwaspassedtoadelegationfromtheShanStateArmy-North(SSA-N)-adefactoallyoftheUWSA-ataseparatemeetinginLashiothatsameday.AsdescribedtotheIrrawaddymagazinebyoneSSA-Nsource:"He[MinAungHlaing]saidthearmedgroupsshouldlaydowntheirgunsasthereshouldonlybeasinglearmyforthecountry."
还不清楚小鲍面对缅军最高首领们时是受到了奉承还是恐吓。4月6日会谈的细节至今没有披露。然而，军方向佤联军发出的信息可能同于在当天腊戍另一次会谈中向其盟友北掸邦军代表团发出的信息。北掸邦军人士对伊江新闻杂志说：“他（敏昂来）说，国家只能有一支军队，民族武装组织应该放下武器。”
Showofstrength
显示力量
InlateFebruaryMinAungHlaingwasconveyingaratherbluntermessagefromtheTatmadaw:adivisional-levellive-fireexerciseheldoutsidethecentralMyanmartownofMeiktila.Dubbed"Anawratha"afterthefounderofthe11thcenturyPaganEmpire,thewell-publicizedwargamesinvolvedapanoplyofmilitarypowercenteredonmechanizedinfantryoftheMagwe-based88thLightInfantryDivisionusingindigenouslyproducedUkrainianarmoredpersonnelcarriersandChineseinfantryfightingvehicles.
2月下旬，敏昂来在缅甸中部城镇密铁拉郊外举行师级规模的实弹演习，为缅军发出了相当不客气的信息。
Theinfantrywassupportedbyintensefirepowerfrommainbattletanks,arangeofartillerysystemsincludingmultiplelaunchrocketsystems(MLRS),105mmand155mmhowitzers,andcloseairsupportintheshapeofrocket-firingMi-35helicoptergunshipsandlow-flyingMig-29airsuperiorityfighters.Shortlyafter,ablogsitededicatedtotheMyanmarmilitaryunderstoodtobeclosetotheTatmadawdescribedthisdisplayofmilitarymightasa"finalwarning"totheUWSAtojointhenationalpeaceprocessorfacetheconsequences.
不久，一个被认为接近缅军的缅甸军事博客将此次军事力量展示称为对佤联军的“最后警告”：要么加入全国和平进程，要么面临军事对抗。
MoreoptimisticobserversofMyanmarpolitics,includingagrowingWesternlobbythatconsistentlydefendsTheinSein'spoliticalreformsandnationalpeaceinitiative,willchoosetoassumethattheratchetingupofpsychologicalpressureontheUWSAisessentiallyjustthat-psychologicalpressure.TheexpectationwillbethattheWa,notknownfortheirsensitivitytodiplomaticsignals,willsimplycallNaypyidaw'sbluffastheydidsuccessfullytothreatsin2009andthattheceasefirestatusquowillbepreserved.
更乐观的缅甸政治观察家，包括日益壮大、一直为登盛的政治改革和全国和平辩护的西方游说势力，则认为这只是对佤联军施加心理压力。
Suchassumptionsmaywellbedangerouslymisplaced,however.ThelasttimetheTatmadawstagedwell-publicizeddivisional-levelexercisesoutsideMeiktilawasinMarch2012withadisplayoffirepowerprimarilyintendedtoimpresstheKIA,whichwasthenunderpressuretorenewaceasefirethathadcollapsedinmid-2011.WhentheKIArefusedtoreenternegotiations,thewargameswerefollowedupattheendofyeardryseasonwithafull-scalecampaignaimedatneutralizingtheKachinheadquartersatLaiza.
但这种见解恐怕会是危险的
ThemountingpressureontheWathusposessomestarkquestions:willtheUWSAcontinuetorejectparticipationinthepeaceprocessand,ifso,doesTatmadawstrategyenvisagesecuringanation-widecease-firewithalargemajorityofethnicgroupsbyAugustandthen,withthatagreementhand,movingdecisivelyagainsttheWaatthebeginningofthedryseasoninDecember?
Conventionalwisdomsuggeststhatsuchagovernmentoffensiveisimprobableforatleastthreemainreasons.FirstisthesheerscaleofoperationsthatwouldbenecessarytobreakthebackoftheUWSA.IntheirSpecialRegionNo2alongtheChinesebordertheWafieldthreemain-forcebrigadeswithartilleryandarmoredsupportunits.FurthersouthinwhatisknownasMilitaryRegion171alongtheShanState'sborderwithThailandfivesmallerbrigadesarebased.TheUWSAalsohasareliableallyintheNationalDemocraticAllianceArmy(NDAA)whichfieldsafurther3,500to4,000mainlyethnicShanandhill-tribetroopsinitsSpecialRegionNo4wedgedbetweenWaterritoryandtheMekongRiver.
Simplyput,takingontheUWSA-alarge,well-trainedandhighlymotivatedforcefightingonhomegroundwithitsbacktotheChineseborder-wouldamounttothelargestsingleTatmadawcampaignsinceMyanmar'sindependencefromcolonialrulein1948.Consideringthelikelyinvolvedsizeofforcesandfirepowerinsuchaconflict,thehumancostwouldbecorrespondinglyheavy.Militaryanalystsbelieveanyfull-scaleassaultonWaterritorywouldseecasualtiesrisingrapidlyoverthe10,000markandpossiblyfarhigherduringthefirstfewmonthsofthedryseason.
AsecondandrelatedfactorcentersondoubtsovertheTatmadaw'scapabilitiesinconductingsustained,combined-armsoperationsinvolvingthecoordinationofinfantry,armor,artilleryandcloseairsupportinrugged,hostileterrain.TatmadawperformanceintheLaizacampaignoflate2012andearly2013againsttheKIA,whichfaceddoggedresistancefromafarlesscapableenemy,wasatbestunimpressive,particularlyinregardtotheeffectivenessofcloseairsupport.Atworst,itreflectedseriousproblemsofplanningandcoordination.
Finally,waragainsttheWawouldinevitablyincurthediplomaticwrathofChina.SinceMay2011,ChinaandMyanmarhavebeenjoinedina"comprehensivestrategiccooperativepartnership",andBeijinghasrepeatedlyimpressedonNaypyidawtheimportanceofstabilityalongtheircommonbordersincewellbeforethen.TheTatmadaw's2009incursionintoKokang-essentiallyaminorpolicingoperationbycomparisonwithapotentialcampaignintheWaHills-promptedtheexodusofanestimated36,000refugeesintoChinaandheatedprotestsfromBeijing.AnyinvasionofWaterritorywouldbysomeestimatesdriveatleast100,000civiliansacrosstheborder.
Expandingarsenal
Nevertheless,therearealsopowerfulargumentsalmostcertainlybeingairedintheupperechelonsoftheTatmadawinfavorofadecisivemoveagainsttheWa.ThemostcompellingisthatthelongertheTatmadawwaitsthemoreproblematicthetaskwillbecome.
Militarily,theUWSAisclearlyplayingfortimewhileexpandingitsforcesandmodernizingitsarsenalwithincreasinglysophisticatedweapons.ThisrearmamenthasinvolvedacquiringnewsystemsfromacrosstheChineseborder,includingarmoredvehiclesandalimitednumberof'Hip'Mi-17transporthelicoptersforwhichUWSAcrewshavebeenundergoingtraininginChina.
Farmoreimportant,however,hasbeenarapidbuild-upofstockpilesofinfantryweaponry-includingman-portableairdefensesystems(MANPADS)-andammunitionintended,ifnecessary,tosustainwhatoneseniorethniccommandermonitoringtheresupplyprocessdescribedinlate2012asa"10-yearwar."
Sociallyandeconomically,SpecialRegionNo2hascometoresemblemoreanannexofChinathanaregionofMyanmar.ThelinguafrancaintheUWSAandtheregiongenerallyisMandarinChinese;thecurrencyistheChineseyuan;andthemobiletelephonenetworkservingtheareaisChinese.Meanwhile,Chineseinvestmentinboththerubberand,moreimportantly,rareearthmetalindustriesissignificantandgrowing.ViewedfromNaypyidaw,thecontinuationofthestatusquo,letalonetherecognitionofanautonomousWaState,riskstheregion'sdefactoaccessiontoChina.
AsecondfactorisamoodofrisingnationalistprideandconfidenceinsidetheTatmadaw.Thistrendappearstoderivepartlyfromaprocessofrapidmilitarymodernizationwhichisreinforcingalong-heldinstitutionalmissionofupholdinganddefendingnationalunityandsovereignty-amissionwhichinherentlydemandsanendtotheanomalyofstateswithinastate.Nascentmilitarism,whichblendsintorisingBuddhistnationalismwithdecidedlyxenophobictinges,appearstobegainingcurrencyacrossMyanmarsocietyjudgingbysocialmediapostsandanumberofpopularjingoisticblogs.
Myanmar'snewnationalismhasfocusedontwomainfoils.GrowingdiscriminationandoutrightattacksagainsttheethnicminorityRohingyacommunityandMuslimsmoregenerallyhavebeenwidelyreported.LessvisiblebutneverfarfromthesurfaceofthepopularmoodisangstoverChineseinfluenceinthecountry.
UneaseoverChina'sfastexpandingroleinMyanmar'seconomygrewundermilitaryruleandfoundstrikingexpressioninthemovementtohalttheconstructionoftheChinese-backedMyitsonedamprojectinKachinStatein2011.Againstthisbackdrop,amilitarycampaignagainstanarmedgroupwhichiswidelyregardedasaChineseproxyforceoperatingwithinMyanmar'sborderswouldlikelynotbeahardsell.Itmightevenbepopular,notleastintherunuptogeneralelectionsscheduledfor2015.
Internationalangles
Internationally,anyconflictwiththeWawouldbepresentedbyTheinSein'sgovernmentwithlittleneedforcosmeticsasawaronAsia'slargestnarcotics-traffickingcartel.TheUWSA'sunsavoryrecordasanorganizationwhichsincethelate1990shasengagedinindustrial-scaleproductionandregion-wideexportofmethamphetamineandheroinandwhosetopleadershiphasbeenformallyindictedinanUnitedStatescourtwouldgofartomutecriticismintheWest.
Bycontrast,China'sreactionwouldbeangryandloud.ButhavingpredicateditsWastrategyondeterrence-quietlyassistingaUWSAbuild-upthatmakeswartoocostlyforNaypyidawtocontemplate-thecollapseofthatdeterrentwouldleaveBeijingwithsurprisinglyfewoptions.
SanctionsagainstNaypyidaw,letaloneactivesupportforaprotractedWainsurgency,wouldserveonlytopushMyanmarmorerapidlytowardstheUS,JapanandEurope,compoundingalreadylivelyChinesefearsoverperceivedcontainment.AmorecomprehensivebreakdowninbilateralrelationswouldalsothreatenChina'sextensiveeconomicinterestsinMyanmarandthesecurityofnewnaturalgasandoilpipelinesbuiltacrossthelengthofMyanmarfromtheBayofBengaltofuelthegrowthofsouthwesternChina.
FromBeijing'sperspective,allowingmatterstodeterioratetothatpointwouldbevirtuallyinconceivable.AswasthecaseaftertheKokangoperationin2009andtheMyitsoneDamreversalin2011,Chinawouldprobablyhavelittlechoicebuttoprotestandadapttonewrealities.
Inthefinalanalysis,thecentralfactorintheTatmadaw'scalculusremainsamilitaryone.Thepreferredoptionwouldclearlybeacombined-armsblitzkriegwithheavyemphasisonartilleryandairstrikesthatwouldswiftlyoverwhelmkeymilitaryandadministrativecentersandsmashtheUWSAasacohesiveforce.WeretheWatosuccumbtothetemptationofattemptingtodefendfixedpositionsagainstoverwhelmingfirepower,avictoryofsortsmightwellbeachieved.
TheriskfortheTatmadawwouldbeslidingintoamorassofopen-endedguerrillaresistance.SuchaconflictcouldeasilymetastasizesouthintoeasternShanStateandalongtheThaiborder,destabilizingawideswathofterritorybetweentheSalweenandMekongRiversandinflamingrelationswithotherethnicminorities.ShouldawarwiththeWadragonwithrisingcasualties,itcouldalsodoimmensedamagetothemilitary'sownnationalprestigeandpoliticalleadershiprole.
ThepurelymilitarycalculussuggestssuchrisksfaroutweighthecostsimposedbyWaintransigenceandanunpalatablebuthardlyunbearablestatusquo.History,however,islongonexamplesofstrategicmiscalculationswithfar-reachingrepercussionstriggeredbymilitaryhubrisandnationalpride.
AnthonyDavisisaBangkok-basedsecurityanalystforIHS-Jane's.
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